How we translate live cryptocurrency market data into a simple, accurate weather forecast — with full transparency on every indicator, weight, and scoring rule.
CryptoMarketForecast uses a two-tier calculation system — one formula for the overall market weather shown in the hero section, and a separate five-indicator formula for each individual cryptocurrency. Both systems convert raw market data into a score from 0–100, which maps to one of four weather conditions: ☀️ Sunny, ⛅ Partly Cloudy, ☁️ Cloudy, or 🌧️ Rainy.
The market-wide forecast shown at the top of the homepage is calculated using three key indicators. Each is scored on a 0–100 scale and combined using the following weights:
The dominant market psychology indicator, scoring 0–100 directly. A score of 0 represents Extreme Fear (maximum bearish sentiment), while 100 represents Extreme Greed (maximum bullish sentiment). Carries the highest weight as the most recognised and widely followed sentiment gauge in the cryptocurrency market.
The average Relative Strength Index across all tracked coins, calculated from 14-day candlestick data. Rather than relying on Bitcoin's RSI alone, we average across the top coins to capture the true breadth of market momentum. The RSI is converted to a 0–100 score — a lower RSI (oversold territory) scores higher, reflecting bullish reversal potential.
The average 24-hour percentage price change across all tracked coins. Strong gains push the forecast toward Sunny; significant losses push toward Rainy. Converted to a 0–100 score using the following bands:
| Combined Score / Override Condition | Weather | Market State |
|---|---|---|
| Above 65 — or RSI >70 & price gain >5% | Sunny | Strong bullish momentum |
| 46 – 65 | Partly Cloudy | Neutral — cautious optimism |
| 26 – 45 — or price drop >5% or RSI <35 | Cloudy | Bearish — elevated uncertainty |
| 0 – 25 — or price drop >10% or RSI <20 | Rainy | Extreme Fear — high selling pressure |
Each coin's weather forecast uses five equally weighted indicators (20% each), producing a combined score from 0–100. This multi-factor approach prevents any single volatile metric from distorting the result.
The global sentiment score from CoinMarketCap, applied equally to all coins. A high score signals the market is in risk-on mode, contributing positively to individual coin forecasts. A low score (Extreme Fear) suppresses scores across the board, reflecting unfavourable market conditions for all assets.
The coin's individual 14-day RSI calculated from Binance candlestick data. In our model, a lower RSI signals more bullish potential — oversold conditions (RSI below 30) represent a buying opportunity, while an RSI above 70 indicates the coin may be overbought and due for a correction.
The percentage of community members who are bullish on the coin, sourced from CoinGecko's sentiment API. This crowd-sourced signal reflects the real-time mood of retail crypto investors. A sentiment score above 70% is strongly bullish; below 40% indicates bearish community outlook.
Short-term price momentum scored using the same bands as the market formula. Gains above +10% score highest (90); drops exceeding -10% score lowest (5). This indicator ensures the coin's actual recent performance directly influences its weather, not just sentiment signals.
The EMA-20 / EMA-50 crossover calculated from daily Binance candlestick data. When the 20-day Exponential Moving Average crosses above the 50-day EMA it signals an emerging bullish trend; a cross below indicates bearish momentum. Scored from 0–100: Strong Buy (90), Buy (70), Neutral (50), Sell (30), Strong Sell (10).
In extreme conditions, the combined coin score may be overridden to better reflect real-world market dynamics:
Forced Rainy: Applied when a coin drops ≥7% with a sell signal present, drops ≥10% outright, or drops ≥5% with both low community sentiment and a sell signal.
Forced Sunny: Applied when a coin gains ≥10% with a confirmed buy signal.
Extreme Fear Cap: During Extreme Fear (F&G below 25), non-stablecoin coins are capped at Cloudy unless price gains are exceptional.
Extreme Greed Floor: During Extreme Greed (F&G above 75), coins are floored at Partly Cloudy unless experiencing significant losses.
The accordion signal bar below the market stats shows four live market indicators at a glance. Here is how each is calculated:
Sourced directly from CoinMarketCap. Published daily. Values: 0–24 Extreme Fear, 25–49 Fear, 50–74 Greed, 75–100 Extreme Greed. Displayed in the corresponding colour — red, orange, yellow-green, or green.
The mean RSI value across all 12 tracked coins, calculated server-side from Binance 14-day candlestick data. Displayed with per-coin breakdown in the expanded panel. Colour-coded: green (RSI <50 — oversold/neutral), yellow (RSI 50–70), red (RSI >70 — overbought).
Derived from CoinGecko's community sentiment API — the average percentage of users bullish across all tracked coins. Values above 60% are displayed green (Bullish); below 40% are red (Bearish); in between are neutral.
Based on the EMA-20 / EMA-50 crossover signal averaged across tracked coins. When the majority of coins show a bullish EMA crossover the signal reads Bull Market (green); when the majority show bearish crossovers it reads Bear Market (red).
Learn about the five data providers that power our forecast — and what each one contributes.
📡 View Data Sources →