CryptoMarketForecast uses a two-tier calculation system — one formula for the overall market weather shown in the hero section, and a separate five-indicator formula for each individual cryptocurrency. Both systems convert raw market data into a score from 0–100, which maps to one of four weather conditions: ☀️ Sunny, ⛅ Partly Cloudy, ☁️ Cloudy, or 🌧️ Rainy.
The market-wide forecast shown at the top of the homepage is calculated using three key indicators. Each is scored on a 0–100 scale and combined using the following weights:
The dominant market psychology indicator, scoring 0–100 directly. Carries the highest weight as the most recognised sentiment gauge.
The average Relative Strength Index across all tracked coins, calculated from 14-day candlestick data.
The average 24-hour percentage price change across all tracked coins.
| Combined Score / Override Condition | Weather | Market State |
|---|---|---|
| Above 65 — or RSI >70 & price gain >5% | Sunny | Strong bullish momentum |
| 46 – 65 | Partly Cloudy | Neutral — cautious optimism |
| 26 – 45 — or price drop >5% or RSI <35 | Cloudy | Bearish — elevated uncertainty |
| 0 – 25 — or price drop >10% or RSI <20 | Rainy | Extreme Fear — high selling pressure |
Each coin's weather forecast uses five equally weighted indicators (20% each), producing a combined score from 0–100.
The global sentiment score from CoinMarketCap, applied equally to all coins.
The coin's individual 14-day RSI calculated from Binance candlestick data.
The percentage of community members who are bullish on the coin.
Short-term price momentum scored using the same bands as the market formula.
The EMA-20 / EMA-50 crossover calculated from daily Binance candlestick data.
In extreme conditions, the combined coin score may be overridden to better reflect real-world market dynamics:
Forced Rainy: Applied when a coin drops ≥7% with a sell signal present, drops ≥10% outright, or drops ≥5% with both low sentiment and a sell signal.
Forced Sunny: Applied when a coin gains ≥10% with a confirmed buy signal.
Extreme Fear Cap: During Extreme Fear (F&G below 25), non-stablecoin coins are capped at Cloudy unless price gains are exceptional.
Extreme Greed Floor: During Extreme Greed (F&G above 75), coins are floored at Partly Cloudy unless experiencing significant losses.
The accordion signal bar below the market stats shows four live market indicators at a glance.
Sourced directly from CoinMarketCap. Published daily. Values: 0–24 Extreme Fear, 25–49 Fear, 50–74 Greed, 75–100 Extreme Greed.
The mean RSI value across all 12 tracked coins, calculated server-side from Binance 14-day candlestick data.
Derived from CoinGecko's community sentiment API — the average percentage of users bullish across all tracked coins.
Based on the EMA-20 / EMA-50 crossover signal averaged across tracked coins.
Learn about the five data providers that power our forecast.
📡 View Data Sources →